| Final Program | Papers (password
protected) |
Registration information
and form (MS Word format) |
Getting there |
Workshop
Leaflet (pdf format) |
INTRODUCTION
This workshop takes up the idea of the International Institute of
Forecasters of complementing the annual symposia with smaller workshops
focusing on a particular theme. Demographic forecasting is a field in transformation,
where new alternative approaches that share an increased statistical sophistication
are being proposed. Demographic forecasts are particularly complex since
the data generally have at least two dimensions: age and time, to which
often are added sex (in mortality forecasting) or parity (in fertility forecasting).
Models need to take this particular data structure into account. Also at
debate is the question of estimation techniques and to what extent and how
prior information should be taken into account.
The purpose of the workshop is getting together the main contributors
to the field in an environment which favours ample discussion. This is guaranteed
by limiting the number of speakers, allocating a reasonable time for exposition,
assigning one discussant for each paper, and leaving time for a floor debate
on each contribution. The speakers will cover all the main issues in demographic
forecasting.
FINAL PROGRAM
| 9.30-10.00 |
Registration at Salón de la Cúpula, Colegio
Arzobispo Fonseca |
| 10.00-10.15 Workshop Opening |
Welcome words from Ramón José Torregrosa
(Director, Dept. of Economics, Universidad de Salamanca), Antonio García
Ferrer (IIF Director, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid) and José Antonio
Ortega (Universidad de Salamanca) |
| 10.15-11.45 Session 1 (Chair: Nico Keilman) |
Piet de Jong and Leonie Tickle (Macquarie
University Sydney, Australia): “Extending Lee-Carter mortality forecasting” Discussant: Marek Brabec (National Institute of Public Health, Czech Republic) |
| 11.45-12.15 |
Coffee break |
| 12.15-13.45 Session 2 (Chair: Nico Keilman) |
Rob J. Hyndman (Monash University, Australia)
and Heather Booth (Australian National University): “Stochastic
population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility
and migration”. Discussant: José Antonio Ortega (Universidad de Salamanca) |
| 14.00-16.00 |
Lunch at Colegio Arzobispo Fonseca |
| 16.00-17.30 Session 3 (Chair: Piet de Jong) |
Federico Girosi (Rand Corporation,
USA) and Gary King (Harvard University): “Using prior knowledge in demographic
forecasting” Discussant: Laurent Toulemon (INED, France) |
| 17.30-18.00 |
Coffee Break |
| 18.00-19.30 Session 4 (Chair: Piet de Jong) |
Frank Betz (MEA, University of Mannheim,
Germany) and Oliver Lipps (Swiss Household Panel): “Stochastic population
projection for Germany based on the QS-approach to modelling age-specific
fertility rates”. Discussant: Cristina Rueda (Universidad de Valladolid, Spain) |
| 21.00 |
Dinner(TBA). Meeting at 20.40 at the Hall, Colegio Arzobispo Fonseca, and walking from there. |
Friday, July 29th, 2005
| 10.00 – 11.30 Session 5 (Chair: Heather Booth) |
Juha Alho (University of Joensuu, Finland):
“Simplified approaches to Stochastic Multi-State Population Forecasts” Discussant: Francesco Billari (Università Bocconi, Italy) |
| 11.30 – 12.00 |
Coffee break |
| 12.00 |
Visit to the Ancient University Library. Leaving from Fonseca on foot. |
| 14.00 – 16.00 |
Lunch at Colegio Arzobispo Fonseca |
| 16.00 – 17.30 Session 6 (Chair: Juha Alho) |
Nico Keilman (University of Oslo, Norway):
“No improvement in the performance of population forecasts in the last
20 years”. Discussant: Pilar Poncela (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid) |
| 17.30 – 18.00 |
Coffee Break |
| 18.00 – 19.15 Session 7 (Chair: José Antonio Ortega) |
The Future of Stochastic Demographic Forecasting Pannel of Participants. Round table discussion. |
| 21.00 |
Dinner (TBA). Meeting at 20.40 at the Hall,
Colegio Arzobispo Fonseca, and walking from there. |
Organizing Committee:
Luis Alberto del Rey Poveda, Universidad de Salamanca (Spain)
INFORMATION
Site Information:
The workshop will take place at the Salón de Actos, Colegio Arzobispo Fonseca, a unique example of 16th century university architecture. The address is
Plaza de Fonseca 4, Salamanca. Phone: +34 923 294 570.
Getting there:
Most people will come to the workshop via Madrid. Travel from Madrid can be done either by bus or train. Buses are more frequent and leave you closer to the workshop site. Trains are less frequent, but quite scenic. All information about train and bus schedules and how to get to the Colegio Arzobispo Fonseca can be found here.
Registration:
For those wishing to attend the workshop, registration is needed. The necessary steps are the following:
1) Make a bank transfer of the registration fee (50 €), all expenses paid by the sender. If you live in Spain, make the transfer to "Seminario IIF", account number 0049 6780 58 2995206647, if you live outside of Spain make the transfer to "Seminario IIF", IBAN: ES20 0049 6780 5829 9520 6647, BIC: BSCHESMM. Make sure your name is specified in the transfer information.
2) Send an email to Luis Alberto Del Rey with the filled in registration form.
There is a limited maximum number of attendants so early registration is important.. When the seminar is filled up it will be posted on this site, so that you can assume there are vacancies if this information has not been removed from this webpage. [ Last 5 vacancies left ]
The registration fee covers the costs of documentation, certificates of attendance, lunch at the conference venue the two days, coffee breaks and dinners.
Accommodation:
Attendants should look for their own accommodation. Two hotels that are particularly convenient are 4* Hotel Abba Fonseca, just opposite the Colegio Fonseca, and 2* Microtel Placentinos. More information and reservations at http://www.salamancaturismo.com/
SPONSORS
| International Institute of Forecasters |
Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia Research Grant SEC-2002-00610 |
Departamento de Economía e Historia Económica Universidad de Salamanca |
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Última revisión:6 de julio de 2005
Número de visitas: